Nigeria’s GDP Growth Raises Concerns over Industrial Weakness
Despite Nigeria recording a nominal GDP increase of 18.3% year-on-year, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), warns that this rise does not reflect genuine economic progress. Real GDP growth between 2020 and 2024 averaged just 1.95%, revealing economic fragility beneath the surface.
Ajayi-Kadir praised the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for its meticulous approach to rebasing the GDP, which now reflects a broader and more detailed picture of Nigeria’s economy. However, he cautioned that the data also highlights the declining contribution of the industrial sector—especially manufacturing.
He noted a worrying drop in industry’s share of GDP, falling from 27.65% in 2010 to 21.08% in the 2019 rebased structure. “Manufacturing is structurally weak,” he stated, adding that key sub-sectors are failing to perform up to their potential. Between 2019 and 2024, manufacturing contracted by an average of -0.76% annually.
While the rebased figures incorporate previously overlooked sectors—like digital services, modular refineries, and creative industries—the overall shift reveals an economy leaning more toward services and low-productivity activities. Services such as telecommunications, trade, and entertainment saw rapid growth in 2024, while agriculture’s share climbed to 27.8%. Manufacturing, however, remains in decline.
Ajayi-Kadir stressed that GDP expansion, without a strong industrial foundation, risks becoming a hollow statistic. He called on the Nigerian government to view the rebased figures not as a victory, but as a warning—a call for bold reforms to re-industrialise and strengthen local production.
“Without a strong industrial base,” he concluded, “economic instability, unemployment, and poverty will persist. We must revitalise manufacturing to achieve sustainable, inclusive growth.”
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